The LED market has a slight warming trend. Aoyang Shunchang (002245.SZ), which is doing metal logistics and distribution, can't wait to announce that it will raise 500 million yuan to accelerate its entry into the LED chip market. However, some insiders told reporters that in the case of overcapacity, leading expansion, industry consolidation and increasingly important channels, "the company is entering the market too late."

The profit prospects of the epitaxial chip project are bearish

“Aoyang Shunchang is coming too late now,” said a senior analyst in the electronics industry in Beijing, a large brokerage firm, who evaluated the LED epitaxial chip project launched by Sangchang.

According to the information, Aoyang Shunchang's main business is the processing of metal materials and micro-credit business. In 2012, the company's metal logistics distribution business revenue reached 1.627 billion yuan, but the gross profit margin was only 9.41%, contributing 153 million yuan profit; the company's micro-credit business contributed 95.39 million yuan of operating income and 8.54 million yuan profit.

On June 4, the company announced that it plans to issue no more than 100 million shares at a price of not less than 5.12 yuan per share, raising no more than 512 million yuan for LED epitaxial wafer and chip industrialization projects (Phase I) and replenishing liquidity. .

After the completion of the project, the company will have an LED epitaxial wafer and chip production base with advanced equipment and outstanding production efficiency. The construction period of the project is 30 months. After the project is completed and put into production, it will form an annual production capacity of 1.8 million pieces of blue-green LED epitaxial wafers (calculated by 2-inch epitaxial wafers) and 11.5 billion blue-green chips.

According to the reporter's understanding, as early as April 2011, the company announced that the total planned investment of 1 billion yuan to enter the LED epitaxial chip industry, no later than the second quarter of 2012 began trial production. However, since then, due to the frenzied investment in the LED chip industry in the market, the gross profit margin of LED chips has fallen sharply, and many companies have suffered losses. The company's LED epitaxial chip project is also progressing slowly.

By the end of 2012, the company's LED project civil engineering project was fully completed, the relevant personnel were basically in place, and the equipment ordered by the company was gradually delivered and installed. Only 5 MOCVD devices have been ordered, only 2 are in place and in installation and commissioning. The company's planned investment of 1 billion yuan has only fulfilled 100 million yuan so far.

"If there is a scale effect, the LED chip factory must have at least 60 units in the first batch, and the large manufacturers are generally in the range of 150 units to 200 units. There are more Taiwanese manufacturers." The above-mentioned electronics industry analyst in Beijing said that the company's current MOCVD equipment The quantity can not produce scale effect. If we consider depreciation and yield climbing, we may encounter factors such as the price war of Sanan Optoelectronics (600703.SH) and Dehao Runda (002005.SZ). The money is good."

"It takes half a year to adjust the machine. If the chip to be produced has to reach a stable state, it will not be possible in 2-3 years." A senior LED analyst in Shenzhen told reporters that if it wants to achieve profitability, the company Need to dig a team, familiar with the machine of a certain type of machine, and then the company will buy several MOCVD equipment of this type.

However, Aoyang Shunchang has also disclosed in the annual report that the company has purchased two MOCVD equipments in 2011 and has reserves for MOCVD technicians.

The reporter called Aoyang Shunchang to inquire about this issue. A woman in the securities department of the company said that both the secretaries of the board of directors and the witnesses were on a business trip, and it was not convenient to give contact information.

Overcapacity clouded

For Aoyang Shunchang, the current LED chip market is not optimistic.

According to previous investigations by the reporter, the LED epitaxial wafer chip belongs to the upstream of the LED industry. However, there are no technical barriers in the field of LED chip manufacturing. MOCVD equipment necessary for domestic chip manufacturers to produce LED chips is almost exclusively imported from two overseas manufacturers. To be a foothold in this market, there must be a sufficient number of MOCVD equipment and sufficient technical talent.

Among the mainland manufacturers, after two years of development, Sanan Optoelectronics has become one of the largest in the field of LED chips.

As of the end of 2012, Sanan Optoelectronics' LED chip production value accounted for 40% of the total industrial output value, Huacan Optoelectronics (300323.SZ), Ganzhao Optoelectronics (300102.SZ), Silan Micro (600460.SH) The cumulative production value of Silan Mingxin and Shanghai Blu-ray is only 22%.

In addition, Sanan Optoelectronics has become the first chip manufacturer in China with more than 100 MOCVD equipment. The above-mentioned institutions expect that in 2013, Sanan Optoelectronics MOCVD equipment will reach 174 units, leaving the second place far behind.

"In the future, the LED chip market will be strong and strong, and the scale effect and channel will become more and more important," said the senior analyst of the electronics industry in Beijing.

In addition, Aoyang Shunchang's LED epitaxial chip project has not been completely completed, it has to face the crisis of overcapacity in the industry.

According to data from the High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLII), as of the end of November 2012, the number of domestic mass production MOCVD equipment was 909, with an average yield of less than 60% and a capacity utilization rate of only 30%.

Another large-scale LED chip maker, Silan Micro, is considered by the industry to be the "in the past" of Aoyang Shunchang.

Due to the slow release of capacity, LED chip prices have been falling. In 2012, the average selling price of Silan Mingxin LED chips under Silan Micro decreased by 48.04% compared with the forecasted selling price of the fundraising project, resulting in a fundraising project that achieved sales revenue of 116 million yuan in 2012, but the profit after income tax. Still losing a loss of 14.09 million yuan.

Chip faucet expansion is busy

For the LED chip market, it is not just the Australian Ocean Shunchang, the industry giants have stepped up the pace of capacity expansion. Recently, Shi Lanwei's director and general manager of Shilan Mingxin Jiang Zhongyong publicly claimed that the current production capacity of Silan Mingxin is 1400kk/month, and the display chip accounts for 80%. In 2013, the company will continue to expand production. By the end of the year, the production capacity will reach 2000kk/month, and the proportion of lighting chips will rise to 30%-40%.

On May 27, Sanan Optoelectronics announced that it plans to raise funds to not exceed 3.3 billion yuan, of which no more than 2.8 billion yuan will be invested in the Wuhu Optoelectronics Industrialization (Phase II) project.

It is worth noting that the MOCVD subsidy policy introduced by local governments in the past two years directly led to the emergence of new LED epitaxial chip projects in China.

According to statistics, a total of 65 new LED epitaxial chip projects were established in China in 2009-2012. However, due to the harsh market environment, more than 30% of the projects have been withdrawn or shelved.

Some industry analysts recently wrote that the polarization trend of the LED upstream chip industry has gradually emerged, and the industry has entered the survival of the fittest in advance.

Zhang Xiaofei, dean of the High-tech Industry Research Institute, publicly stated that as the performance of LED lighting products continues to increase and prices continue to fall, the overall cost of lighting is close to that of traditional lighting. "In the next two to three years, only a few or a dozen MOCVD machine chip companies will be difficult. Unless the products are positioned in the market segments, these small enterprises will soon be eliminated by the market."

The reporter turned around and found the company secretary Lin Wenhua mobile phone, first hang up, after dialing again, the phone was not answered. As of press time, the reporter was unable to contact other people within the company to comment.

(This article is reproduced on the Internet. The texts and opinions expressed in this article have not been confirmed by this site, nor do they represent the position of Gaogong LED. Readers need to verify the relevant content by themselves.)

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